The November closing price of Bitcoin was below $60,000, meaning that PlanB’s floor model was no longer accurate.
The analyst also confirmed that the stock-to-flow model is still valid, as BTC is currently on track to reach $100,000.
PlanB’s Floor Model Fails
PlanB is a popular analyst in cryptocurrency. He is best known for his Bitcoin stock-toflow model which he published in 2019. He also published another model in July, which he called the “worst case scenario”.
It’s also known as the floor model. It is based on technical factors such as the 200-day moving mean. BTC closed August at $47,000, September and October at $43,000 and October at $63,000.
The first two months were perfect. BTC closed October at $61,000. This was very close to the model’s predicted value, but PlanB stated it was “good enough”.
The closing closing price for November was actually $98,000, which was a significant difference from the model’s expectations. Accordingly, the analyst acknowledged that this was the first failure of the model after completing the previous months.
Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct). Although no model is perfect, this is the first time in 10 years that it has failed! Outlier/black swan? I will continue to give Floor model one more month.
Unaffected S2F model and on track for $100K Beware of trolls who confuse Floor and the S2F model! https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD), December 1, 2021
The floor model is separate from the stock to flow model. This model sees the stock (or stockpiles), as the amount of available reserves and the flow (or annual supply) as the number of bitcoins that are added annually to the market.
This is actually more bullish than the original model, which predicted bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end the year. The updated stock-to-flow cross asset model, which included different phases in bitcoin’s development predicted a price of $288,000 to 2024.
While bitcoin is still below $60,000 as of the writing, PlanB believes the original S2F isn’t broken and that the asset is well on its way to $100,000. BTC must increase its USD value by at least 66% over the next 30 days if it is to reach a six-digit price.
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