PlanB acknowledged that his worst-case scenario for BTC’s price movements was about to be proved wrong. According to the analyst’s model, the asset would be worth $98,000 at the end November. This seems a bit far-fetched.
PlanB’s Worst Case Scenario
CryptoPotato previously reported on the accuracy of PlanB’s worst-case scenario (floormodel), which he referred it to, and is distinct from the stock-to-flow model. It was however quite resilient and was accurate for several months consecutively.
According to the prediction model, bitcoin would close at $47,000 by August’s end and drop to $43,000 by September’s. Both of these outcomes were true. October was also close, with BTC closing the month at $61,000 while PlanB expected $63,000. This minor difference was deemed a “rounding error” by an anonymous analyst, which was sufficient for him.
A podcast with Saifean Ammous, author of the Bitcoin Standard, highlighted the differences between the S2F model (BTC production and demand) and PlanB’s “worst case scenario” model. The latter is more technical and is primarily based on the 200-day moving mean.
What went wrong the first time?
Many expected the November prediction price for $98,000 to come true, given the accuracy of the model. The ongoing month is undoubtedly the best in BTC history, as it has seen some of the most remarkable gains in the past years.
The November started on a high note with the cryptocurrency reaching its highest ever peak of $69,000 in just a few weeks. The landscape has changed since then, with BTC trading at well below $60,000.
To reach $98,000, bitcoin must increase its USD value by at least 65%. PlanB acknowledged that the task might be too difficult even for the primary cryptocurrency, given that November is less than a week away.
The analyst stated that the stock-toflow model was “not affected” but is actually on its way to $100,000.
After nailing Oct, Sep, and Oct, the floor model $98K Nov close is likely to be a first miss. S2F model is not affected, and in fact on track to $100K. pic.twitter.com/QO3bRUoGo3
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD November 25, 2021
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