Market movements often consist of two phases. The expansion phase is when the price moves sharply in one direction and the correction phase is where the price forms continuation patterns. This analysis will examine the structure of the bear market.
The Weekly Chart
Since the 2021 ATH, Bitcoin has been falling and has formed expansion moves that were followed by correction phases. The price is currently below its 200-week moving mean ($23K), which was the critical and decisive level. This was followed by a pullback. The cryptocurrency formed a continuation correction pattern, but was rejected at the upper boundary.
Given the above price action patterns, Bitcoin could plummet from this level and reach lower demand areas. The bearish leg could be the final move down that completes the capitulation between market participants.
The 4-Hour Chart
Bitcoin formed a well-known wedge price movement pattern after a bearish expansion move just a few weeks back. The $19K level, on the other hand, has been a strong support and has initiated a bullish rally. After breaking the wedge’s upper trendline, and forming a pullback the bulls prevailed over the bears and BTC saw another rally.
Since then, the rally has been a bull trap that worked. The price plummeted. Given the bull trap and price action, Bitcoin is likely to see another leg down in order to retest $19K. Bitcoin will move on to the $16K mark if the $19K support level is not met.
The Miners Fee to Rewards Ratio determines how much of the fee is included in the total block reward. This indicator is usually high during bull runs and shows higher values. This indicates a greater incentive for miners to mine Bitcoin, and more network activity. It’s a sign that there is a healthy bullish market.
The indicator falls significantly in bear markets and is almost at zero during them, which indicates capitulation. The indicator did however show signs of accumulation by market participants, with a steady increase at the close of bearish cycles.
Bitcoin has experienced an impulsive surge, which has been the catalyst for the next bullish cycle. The metric is currently at zero, after Bitcoin experienced a 75% drop in its price. It is slowly rising.
Marla Brooks – Financial Analysis
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