After a huge crash of $30K in June, Bitcoin is still holding steady within the $20K area. This zone is also in line with the 2017 ATH and offers psychological support. If it holds, this could lead to a relief rally in short-term.
Edris provides technical and on-chain analysis
The Daily Chart
As we have already mentioned, if the price recovers from the current consolidation range then the $24K resistance and the 50-day moving mean would be the first major obstacles before the $30K supply area.
However, if the price falls below the $17-20K support level, a deeper crash towards $15K would be likely.
A short-term bullish pullback is still possible, given that the price has reached a significant support level and is heavily oversold.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart below shows that the price fluctuated within a triangle pattern for the past few weeks.
The triangle pattern could become either a continuation pattern or a reverse pattern depending on whether or not the price moves to the upside or down. BTC is currently testing the higher boundary after finding support at its lower boundary a few weeks ago.
A bullish breakout can lead to a reversal scenario or at the very least, a short-term pullback towards the $24K or $30K levels. The trend of the RSI indicator above 50 indicates the relative dominance by the bulls in the market over the past few days.
Analyse of the On-chain
Bitcoin Whale MVRV
In the past, the bottom of a market cycle was formed when the price ranged with ‘extreme fear’. The majority market participants are in deep water during this phase and the weaker players tend to suffer huge losses. Some of the more powerful hands, however, continue to HODL in the face of pain.
Whales were the second group. These are wealthy investors who can tolerate greater risk than others and are more financially secure than those with smaller capital. The bear market’s final phase would be dominated by whales, who are the last group to enter losing territory.
The MVRV ratio is one of the most important indicators to evaluate unrealized profits/losses on the market. MVRV refers to the ratio between market value and realized value for a set coins.
The following Whale MVRV chart shows that previous bear markets bottoms coincided with Whale VrV values below 1. This indicates that most whales were at a loss. This metric dropped to below 1 recently, which indicates that the end of the capitulation phase has begun and the bottom of the cycle in the coming weeks or months.
Marla Brooks – Financial Analysis
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